One can not but foretell into what teams the powers will fall if and when conflict does escape once more. However regardless of the grouping could also be, it’s vitally essential that we must always convey Bulgaria in on our aspect… Bulgaria, by becoming a member of the central powers in 1915, extended the conflict by two years. Numerically she is small however strategically she is a huge. So we should be ready to supply her such potentialities and alternatives as will convey her in on our aspect if a crash comes. There should be no hesitation or delay or futile diplomacy as in 1915. So we should put together NOW for the mandatory motion.
As has been famous, Swire believed that the Key to Bulgaria’s assist lay within the Aegean query and on this there was nothing singular, however what was uncommon was the tactic he advised for assembly Bulgaria’s calls for.
If we supplied Bulgaria instant occupation of Greek Thrace from the Mesta line to the Turkish frontier, together with Porto Lagos and Dedeagach, she would are available with us… My proposal is just this that we must be ready to cede Cyprus to Greece offered she ceded Thrace to Bulgaria. Cyprus is a wealthy island, it’s no use to us 2, the Greeks clamour for it, it IS Greek, and its space is similar or higher than Thrace east of the Maritza.
Swire’s proposal appears to have been taken extra critically than maybe it deserved. The objections to it, from a British standpoint, have been set out at size and with persistence by Heald.
The overall impression is that, whereas totally recognizing the power of your argument in regards to the hazard of rising Russian affect in Bulgaria and agreeing that the whole lot doable must be completed to maintain Bulgaria “candy”, it is going to be extraordinarily arduous to make concessions with out on the similar time spoiling good relations with different states whose friendship and co-operation is clearly essential to our place within the Balkans and within the Jap Mediterranean, having particular regard to the air path to the center East and India and past, and to Egypt and South Africa, by no means, after all, forgetting the Suez Canal.
If, subsequently, one is to counteract Russian affect, which in any case should act as a counterpoise to the undoubtedly rising German affect in Bulgaria, by making concessions on the expense of Greece and to the annoyance of Turkey, it’s thought of that the worth could be too excessive. I agree that sooner or later Bulgaria’s claims to entry to the ocean ought to obtain consideration but it surely should be remembered that in latest historical past she solely possessed the Aegean seaboard for a brief interval, i.e. from 1913 to 1918. In order that besides on grounds of financial necessity, which is in no way clearly proved, she has little actual authorized declare to such an outlet, and in any case Article 48 of the Treaty of Neuilly solely undertook “to make sure the financial shops of Bulgaria to the Aegean Sea”.
To show now to the query of Greece; within the first place, would Greece take into account that the cession of Cyprus would compensate her for the lack of Thrace and of contiguity together with her new good friend Turkey? In any case such an trade could be opposite to the Greco-Turkish Treaty of September 1933. Would possibly she not regard the entry of a Slav nation to the northern Aegean as he starting of the ahead motion the Slavs which she has at all times feared, and which could probably be prolonged to Salonika if the Yugoslavs took it into their heads to provide sensible impact to a coverage which has at all times been within the instant background?